“Prediction Markets” allow you to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. You choose a market, then an event and open a “Yes” position if you think it will happen, and a “No” position if you think it won’t.
Each Prediction Markets contract is based on a yes-or-no question about a real-world event that can be verified with reliable data.* You guess whether the event will happen or not. If you’re correct, you profit; if you aren’t, you lose.
Prediction Markets prices are quoted in cents, which reflect the market’s view of the probability the event will happen (e.g., 47¢ ≈ 47% chance). You can buy multiple contracts on the same side.
The numbers under Prediction Markets events display open interest - the total number of contracts currently held by all traders for that event.
For Prediction Markets, winning contracts settle at $1; losing contracts at $0.
You can’t hold both Yes and No positions on the same contract, but you can hold multiple on the same side. Some order types, like Immediate-or-Cancel (IOC), must be matched instantly, or the unfilled part will be canceled.
Yes. Prediction Market event contracts are offered on regulated exchanges, subject to oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Like other derivatives, trading activity is monitored to ensure compliance with applicable laws and rules.