19 May 2025 Week Ahead: CPI, PMI & Earnings

The week of 19 May is here, and with it come key reports and releases, reflecting the state of the economy and financial markets globally. 

Let’s dive in:

United Kingdom CPI: Can Cooling Price Support Dovish BoE?

The UK is set to release its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday, 21 May. In April 2025, UK CPI is expected to rise by 3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.6% in March and well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. This anticipated increase is primarily driven by higher energy costs, following Ofgem’s decision to raise the quarterly energy price cap at the start of April, alongside broader increases in regulated prices such as water bills. The Bank of England projects inflation could climb further, potentially reaching 3.7% by September 2025, and most analysts forecast CPI will stay above 2% for the remainder of the year. Key contributors to this inflationary trend include rising utility and energy prices and external pressures from new US tariffs and broader trade tensions. However, the UK’s services-oriented export base may offer some resilience. (Source: BBC)

Global PMIs to Watch

United Kingdom

• Monday, 19 May 2025: The UK Consumer Sentiment Index (CCI), compiled by S&P Global, will be released.

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: S&P Global will release flash (preliminary) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May. These readings provide early insights into economic activity.

• The UK PMIs will be closely watched for indications of economic recovery or continued stagnation, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

United States

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: S&P Global will publish flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for May, offering early signals on US economic trends.

• Thursday, 22 May 2025: May's S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released.

Manufacturing PMI: The previous reading for April was 50.0, indicating stagnation. While no consensus forecast is available, expectations are for a similar reading, suggesting mild expansion at best.

Services PMI: April’s reading was 51.3, showing modest growth. Continued modest expansion is expected, as services have performed more strongly than manufacturing. (Source: FX Street)

Eurozone

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: Flash PMIs for the Eurozone will be released by S&P Global.

• These figures will be necessary for assessing the region’s economic trajectory, particularly as manufacturing across Europe faces headwinds.

Germany & France

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: S&P Global’s flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for May will be released in Germany and France.

• These readings are key indicators for the broader Eurozone and are closely watched for signs of resilience or further slowdown in Europe’s two largest economies.

Japan

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: S&P Global will release May flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.

• Japan’s data will be scrutinised for stability amid ongoing global manufacturing challenges.

Australia

• Wednesday, 21 May 2025: S&P Global will release Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for May for Australia.

• Analysts will look for indications of domestic strength or softness, especially given external trade pressures.  (Source: Investing.com)

Earnings to Keep in Mind 

Corporate earnings can provide a helpful overview of the economy and trading markets. As such, traders may want to keep tabs on the following reports:

Tuesday, 20 May

• Home Depot (HD)

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Wednesday, 21 May

• The TJX Companies (TJX)

• Lowe’s (LOW)

• Snowflake (SNOW)

• Target (TGT)

• Baidu (BIDU)

• Zoom (ZM)

• Xpeng (XPEV)

Conclusion 

In conclusion, the week of 19 May 2025 is packed with critical economic indicators and corporate earnings that could shape market sentiment and policy expectations. The UK’s rising inflation, driven by energy and regulated price hikes, may challenge hopes for a dovish Bank of England. Meanwhile, global PMI releases across major economies—including the US, Eurozone, Japan, and Australia—will offer vital insights into the health of both manufacturing and services sectors amid persistent global headwinds. Corporate earnings from key players like Home Depot, Target, and Zoom will further colour the economic outlook, offering ground-level views of consumer demand and business resilience.

*Past performance does not reflect future results.